Our model gives Independiente Petrolero a 28% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 48% for Club Bolívar.

Both teams are projected to score in 62% of simulations, against 38% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 62% likelihood against 38% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Independiente Petrolero have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Club Bolívar have done so in 4 of their last 7.