Our model gives Independiente Medellín a 39% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Millonarios.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Independiente Medellín have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Millonarios have done so in 0 of their last 3.