Our model gives Independiente Medellín a 48% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Deportivo Pasto.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Independiente Medellín have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Deportivo Pasto have done so in 3 of their last 5.