Our model gives Independiente Juniors a 59% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 18% for El Nacional.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 54% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Independiente Juniors have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and El Nacional have done so in 1 of their last 3.