Our model gives Independiente Juniors a 70% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 10% for 22 de Julio.

Both teams are projected to score in 40% of simulations, against 60% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 40% likelihood against 60% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Independiente Juniors have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and 22 de Julio have done so in 1 of their last 4.