Our model gives Independiente del Valle a 59% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Universidad Católica.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 54% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Independiente del Valle have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Universidad Católica have done so in 2 of their last 3.