Our model gives Independiente del Valle a 85% chance to win this one, against 11% for a draw and 4% for Delfin.

Both teams are projected to score in 36% of simulations, against 64% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 61% likelihood against 40% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Independiente del Valle have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Delfin have done so in 2 of their last 4.