Our model gives Independiente Chivilcoy a 49% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Escobar FC.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 39% likelihood against 61% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Independiente Chivilcoy have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Escobar FC have done so in 1 of their last 3.