Our model gives Incheon United a 38% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Gimcheon Sangmu.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 42% likelihood against 58% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Incheon United have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Gimcheon Sangmu have done so in 2 of their last 4.