Our model gives Incheon United a 47% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 24% for Bucheon 1995.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 39% likelihood against 61% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Incheon United have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Bucheon 1995 have done so in 2 of their last 4.