Our model gives Imabari a 40% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Montedio Yamagata.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 48% likelihood against 52% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Imabari have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Montedio Yamagata have done so in 0 of their last 2.