Our model gives Ilkeston Town a 49% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Stockton Town.

Both teams are projected to score in 57% of simulations, against 43% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 56% likelihood against 44% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Ilkeston Town have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Stockton Town have done so in 0 of their last 2.