Our model gives IFK Umeå a 36% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 43% for Fränsta.

Both teams are projected to score in 64% of simulations, against 36% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 69% likelihood against 31% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, IFK Umeå have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Fränsta have done so in 2 of their last 2.