Our model gives İstanbulspor a 46% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Fatih Karagümrük.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, İstanbulspor have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Fatih Karagümrük have done so in 1 of their last 2.