Our model gives Hwaseong a 35% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 37% for Daegu.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Hwaseong have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Daegu have done so in 2 of their last 3.