Our model gives Hurstville a 31% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 47% for Northern Tigers.

Both teams are projected to score in 62% of simulations, against 38% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 61% likelihood against 39% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Hurstville have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Northern Tigers have done so in 3 of their last 3.