Our model gives Huracán a 54% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 17% for Deportivo Riestra.

Both teams are projected to score in 37% of simulations, against 63% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 33% likelihood against 67% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Huracán have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and Deportivo Riestra have done so in 2 of their last 4.