Our model gives Homburg a 61% chance to win this one, against 19% for a draw and 20% for Hessen Kassel.

Both teams are projected to score in 61% of simulations, against 39% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 65% likelihood against 35% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Homburg have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Hessen Kassel have done so in 1 of their last 1.