Our model gives Holstein Kiel a 41% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Nürnberg.

Both teams are projected to score in 59% of simulations, against 41% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 57% likelihood against 43% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Holstein Kiel have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Nürnberg have done so in 2 of their last 2.