Our model gives Heracles Almelo a 38% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 39% for De Graafschap.

Both teams are projected to score in 65% of simulations, against 35% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 65% likelihood against 35% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Heracles Almelo have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and De Graafschap have done so in 0 of their last 1.