Our model gives Hemel Hempstead Town a 62% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 17% for Wingate & Finchley.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 61% likelihood against 39% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Hemel Hempstead Town have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Wingate & Finchley have done so in 1 of their last 3.