Our model gives Hellenic Athletic a 51% chance to win this one, against 17% for a draw and 31% for Casuarina.

Both teams are projected to score in 71% of simulations, against 29% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 79% likelihood against 21% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Hellenic Athletic have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Casuarina have done so in 2 of their last 3.