Our model gives Hegelmann Litauen a 23% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 53% for Sūduva.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 53% likelihood against 47% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Hegelmann Litauen have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Sūduva have done so in 1 of their last 1.