Our model gives Hegelmann II a 13% chance to win this one, against 16% for a draw and 70% for Garliava.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 63% likelihood against 37% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Hegelmann II have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 4, and Garliava have done so in 1 of their last 4.