Our model gives Hednesford Town a 45% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Southport.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Hednesford Town have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Southport have done so in 1 of their last 2.