Our model gives Hednesford Town a 34% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 38% for Harborough Town.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Hednesford Town have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Harborough Town have done so in 0 of their last 2.