Our model gives Hebar 1918 a 35% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 37% for Fratria.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 48% likelihood against 52% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Hebar 1918 have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Fratria have done so in 0 of their last 4.