Our model gives Hartford Athletic a 61% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Birmingham Legion.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Hartford Athletic have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Birmingham Legion have done so in 1 of their last 2.