Our model gives Harju Jalgpallikool a 45% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 32% for Nõmme United.

Both teams are projected to score in 66% of simulations, against 34% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 68% likelihood against 32% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Harju Jalgpallikool have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Nõmme United have done so in 2 of their last 3.