Our model gives Hapoel Be'er Sheva a 46% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Sabah.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 60% likelihood against 40% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Hapoel Be'er Sheva have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Sabah have done so in 2 of their last 3.