Our model gives Hammarby Talang a 64% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Karlberg.

Both teams are projected to score in 59% of simulations, against 41% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Hammarby Talang have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Karlberg have done so in 1 of their last 3.