Our model gives H&W Welders a 89% chance to win this one, against 8% for a draw and 4% for Armagh City.

Both teams are projected to score in 41% of simulations, against 59% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 77% likelihood against 23% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, H&W Welders have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Armagh City have done so in 0 of their last 3.