Our model gives H&H Export a 39% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 38% for Matagalpa.

Both teams are projected to score in 59% of simulations, against 41% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 56% likelihood against 43% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, H&H Export have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Matagalpa have done so in 2 of their last 3.