Our model gives Gyeongju HNP a 46% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Changwon City.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Gyeongju HNP have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Changwon City have done so in 0 of their last 1.