Our model gives Gwangju a 20% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 53% for Pohang Steelers.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 40% likelihood against 60% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Gwangju have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5, and Pohang Steelers have done so in 1 of their last 4.