Our model gives Gwangju a 23% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 49% for Jeju United.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 41% likelihood against 59% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Gwangju have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Jeju United have done so in 1 of their last 1.