Our model gives Guria a 68% chance to win this one, against 18% for a draw and 14% for Gonio.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 60% likelihood against 40% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Guria have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Gonio have done so in 0 of their last 2.