Our model gives Guayaquil City a 36% chance to win this one, against 31% for a draw and 33% for Leones del Norte.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 53% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 37% likelihood against 63% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Guayaquil City have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Leones del Norte have done so in 1 of their last 3.