Our model gives Guastatoya a 67% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 11% for Marquense.

Both teams are projected to score in 38% of simulations, against 62% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Guastatoya have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Marquense have done so in 2 of their last 3.