Our model gives Guarani a 62% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 16% for Brusque.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 56% likelihood against 44% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Guarani have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Brusque have done so in 1 of their last 2.