Our model gives Guangzhou Dandelion a 27% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 44% for Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Guangzhou Dandelion have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic have done so in 2 of their last 4.