Our model gives Guangxi Hengchen a 66% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 12% for Shijiazhuang Gongfu.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 53% likelihood against 47% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Guangxi Hengchen have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Shijiazhuang Gongfu have done so in 2 of their last 3.