Our model gives Guangxi Hengchen a 71% chance to win this one, against 18% for a draw and 11% for Meizhou Hakka.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 61% likelihood against 39% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Guangxi Hengchen have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Meizhou Hakka have done so in 2 of their last 4.