Our model gives Gualaceo a 48% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 23% for LDU Portoviejo.

Both teams are projected to score in 42% of simulations, against 58% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 37% likelihood against 63% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Gualaceo have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and LDU Portoviejo have done so in 0 of their last 4.