Our model gives Gualaceo a 49% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 25% for El Nacional.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Gualaceo have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and El Nacional have done so in 1 of their last 3.