Our model gives Guadalupe a 45% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Carmelita.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Guadalupe have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Carmelita have done so in 2 of their last 3.