Our model gives Guabirá a 56% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 24% for Aurora.

Both teams are projected to score in 64% of simulations, against 36% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 67% likelihood against 33% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Guabirá have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Aurora have done so in 1 of their last 3.