Our model gives Grobiņa a 28% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 45% for FC Daugavpils.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Grobiņa have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and FC Daugavpils have done so in 1 of their last 3.