Our model gives Grimsby Town a 45% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Fleetwood Town.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 56% likelihood against 44% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Grimsby Town have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Fleetwood Town have done so in 0 of their last 2.