Our model gives Greifswalder FC a 44% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 33% for Luckenwalde.

Both teams are projected to score in 59% of simulations, against 41% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 58% likelihood against 42% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Greifswalder FC have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5, and Luckenwalde have done so in 3 of their last 4.